{ "id": 2, "title": "What happened when the X Liquidity incentives ended", "generatedAt": "2026-09-25T07:15:12.293Z", "window": { "from": "2026-09-23T07:00:00.000Z", "to": "2026-09-25T07:00:00.000Z", "hours": "48.00", "observations": 43185, "pools": 15, "largestGap": null, "underlyingOpenDuringWindow": true, "partial": false, "plannedTo": "2026-09-25T07:00:00Z", "cliff": "2026-09-24T07:00:00.000Z" }, "method": "Every 60 seconds the collector reads each X Layer pool's slot0, in-range liquidity and initialised ticks and appends the reading. Around the campaign end, full engine captures were taken at 06:30, 06:55, 07:05, 07:30 and 08:30 UTC: executable depth at 1% and 3% by walking the pool's ticks, the Credit Mark, the regime and the debt ceiling. Every figure below is one of those stored readings or captures, or exact integer arithmetic on them.", "pools": [ { "pool": "0x273DA512f76129ED59a2D93D68dFe198423a3114", "symbol": "KOx", "role": "asset", "observations": 2879, "firstAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:56.086Z", "lastAt": "2026-09-25T06:59:18.163Z", "liquidityAtStart": "137352345460879829", "liquidityAtEnd": "206355246469406915", "liquidityMin": "66484550687107045", "liquidityMax": "300198394612901693", "changePct": "50.23", "swingPct": "351.53", "liquidityBeforeCliff": "68850231142779077", "liquidityAfterCliff": "134686614493493486", "cliffChangePct": "95.62" }, { "pool": "0x293A6167Bed3A474b99f450dE817BC4474087Ed4", "symbol": "HKEXCx", "role": "asset", "observations": 2879, "firstAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:56.161Z", "lastAt": "2026-09-25T06:59:17.886Z", "liquidityAtStart": "233977242256795463", "liquidityAtEnd": "3507744005923482", "liquidityMin": "1142456916895274", "liquidityMax": "250948135122357724", "changePct": "-98.50", "swingPct": "21865.65", "liquidityBeforeCliff": "158948965512444351", "liquidityAfterCliff": "51670556246257360", "cliffChangePct": "-67.49" }, { "pool": "0x34Fa7515d3364648F558aa876F73feC12e2bA507", "symbol": "BRK.Bx", "role": "asset", "observations": 2879, "firstAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:56.011Z", "lastAt": "2026-09-25T06:59:17.956Z", "liquidityAtStart": "84975948110571109", "liquidityAtEnd": "98942741570305449", "liquidityMin": "47800406064495110", "liquidityMax": "951076672786602234", "changePct": "16.43", "swingPct": "1889.68", "liquidityBeforeCliff": "74107103716281466", "liquidityAfterCliff": "76210376687268550", "cliffChangePct": "2.83" }, { "pool": "0x6E18CEbFb9C5BBcf127b97a6daB026E941FfF6D5", "symbol": null, "role": "route", "observations": 2879, "firstAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:56.297Z", "lastAt": "2026-09-25T06:59:18.065Z", "liquidityAtStart": "37493661032737448", "liquidityAtEnd": "70855591872023846", "liquidityMin": "37493661032737448", "liquidityMax": "70929692696093720", 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"REFERENCE_CLOSED", "c1": "8008.58496", "c3": "18933.579101", "creditMark": "56.88257326472573948", "debtCeiling": "6006.43872" } ] }, { "label": "campaign-post", "capturedAt": "2026-09-24T07:30:01Z", "assets": [ { "symbol": "BRK.Bx", "regime": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "c1": "16145.99707", "c3": "49411.578124", "creditMark": "500.120274578810450134", "debtCeiling": "12109.497802" }, { "symbol": "HKEXCx", "regime": "NORMAL", "c1": "10791.721679", "c3": "32573.656249", "creditMark": "49.872070074795118837", "debtCeiling": "8093.791259" }, { "symbol": "COINx", "regime": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "c1": "7050.279868", "c3": "22944.51328", "creditMark": "194.22179138738008469", "debtCeiling": "5287.709901" }, { "symbol": "KUAIx", "regime": "THIN", "c1": "4031.062471", "c3": "7793.882324", "creditMark": "3.870046649904436246", "debtCeiling": "3023.296853" }, { "symbol": "ICEx", "regime": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "c1": "6279.112792", "c3": "19573.857421", "creditMark": "153.065476335195902763", "debtCeiling": "4709.334594" }, { "symbol": "MIXUx", "regime": "PRE_TRANSITION", "c1": "1302.489746", "c3": "2767.790771", "creditMark": "23.488317500641998585", "debtCeiling": "976.86731" }, { "symbol": "KOx", "regime": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "c1": "9539.796874", "c3": "29023.507812", "creditMark": "86.809613402615616802", "debtCeiling": "7154.847656" }, { "symbol": "SHEINx", "regime": "NORMAL", "c1": "5720.435058", "c3": "17787.238281", "creditMark": "4.777118892196693743", "debtCeiling": "4290.326294" }, { "symbol": "BMNRx", "regime": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "c1": "8776.104492", "c3": "28805.859374", "creditMark": "27.058491576096456993", "debtCeiling": "6582.078369" }, { "symbol": "SLVx", "regime": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "c1": "8008.569335", "c3": "18933.542968", "creditMark": "56.824096294367766831", "debtCeiling": "6006.427001" } ] }, { "label": "campaign-post", "capturedAt": "2026-09-24T08:30:02Z", "assets": [ { "symbol": "BRK.Bx", "regime": "NORMAL", "c1": "16739.176757", "c3": "51439.933593", "creditMark": "506.089530731281987425", "debtCeiling": "12554.382568" }, { "symbol": "HKEXCx", "regime": "STALE", "c1": "1856.06574", "c3": "5613.168945", "creditMark": "47.164263704327645792", "debtCeiling": "1392.049305" }, { "symbol": "COINx", "regime": "NORMAL", "c1": "6044.942576", "c3": "19502.953124", "creditMark": "193.869108969655765972", "debtCeiling": "4533.706932" }, { "symbol": "KUAIx", "regime": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "c1": "3521.252197", "c3": "6289.020507", "creditMark": "3.816991055189710712", "debtCeiling": "2640.939148" }, { "symbol": "ICEx", "regime": "NORMAL", "c1": "6320.589355", "c3": "19697.996093", "creditMark": "155.046876229079422353", "debtCeiling": "4740.442016" }, { "symbol": "MIXUx", "regime": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "c1": "1046.301513", "c3": "2018.13623", "creditMark": "23.265359981996117394", "debtCeiling": "784.726135" }, { "symbol": "KOx", "regime": "NORMAL", "c1": "12556.540039", "c3": "38613.392578", "creditMark": "87.959414977334351062", "debtCeiling": "9417.405029" }, { "symbol": "SHEINx", "regime": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "c1": "2043.765258", "c3": "6129.685058", "creditMark": "4.696326235830055678", "debtCeiling": "1532.823944" }, { "symbol": "BMNRx", "regime": "NORMAL", "c1": "8751.307617", "c3": "28599.671874", "creditMark": "27.169857661087780595", "debtCeiling": "6563.480713" }, { "symbol": "SLVx", "regime": "THIN", "c1": "3549.118652", "c3": "6958.327636", "creditMark": "57.16665077315767971", "debtCeiling": "2661.838989" } ] }, { "label": "window-end", "capturedAt": "2026-09-25T07:00:02Z", "assets": [ { "symbol": "BRK.Bx", "regime": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "c1": "21496.267578", "c3": "64527.902343", "creditMark": "497.220135891489060811", "debtCeiling": "16122.200684" }, { "symbol": "HKEXCx", "regime": "STALE", "c1": "228.341738", "c3": "9232.441894", "creditMark": "46.804978841298312245", "debtCeiling": "171.256304" }, { "symbol": "COINx", "regime": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "c1": "6314.212304", "c3": "20572.264061", "creditMark": "194.772836874149598683", "debtCeiling": "4735.659228" }, { "symbol": "KUAIx", "regime": "THIN", "c1": "22.230107", "c3": "538.655761", "creditMark": "3.702946882606439884", "debtCeiling": "16.67258" }, { "symbol": "ICEx", "regime": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "c1": "14277.019531", "c3": "44445.871093", "creditMark": "153.763585709965437971", "debtCeiling": "10707.764648" }, { "symbol": "MIXUx", "regime": "THIN", "c1": "82.703717", "c3": "898.948974", "creditMark": "23.322838271506697784", "debtCeiling": "62.027788" }, { "symbol": "KOx", "regime": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "c1": "18821.929687", "c3": "56716.992187", "creditMark": "86.699734745914929131", "debtCeiling": "14116.447265" }, { "symbol": "SHEINx", "regime": "THIN", "c1": "1483.795532", "c3": "4652.560302", "creditMark": "4.51466848063003305", "debtCeiling": "1112.846649" }, { "symbol": "BMNRx", "regime": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "c1": "13603.02539", "c3": "44713.863281", "creditMark": "27.488632823656543615", "debtCeiling": "10202.269042" }, { "symbol": "SLVx", "regime": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "c1": "2605.982666", "c3": "5356.010253", "creditMark": "56.528071470091300532", "debtCeiling": "1954.487" } ] } ], "gaps": [], "sources": [ { "source": "xstocks:price-data", "observations": 39813, "firstAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:05.349Z", "lastAt": "2026-09-25T06:59:40.620Z" }, { "source": "yahoo:chart:0388.HK", "observations": 5759, "firstAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:06.641Z", "lastAt": "2026-09-25T06:59:41.904Z" }, { "source": "yahoo:chart:0625.HK", "observations": 5758, "firstAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:06.646Z", "lastAt": "2026-09-25T06:59:41.907Z" }, { "source": "yahoo:chart:1024.HK", "observations": 5759, "firstAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:06.643Z", "lastAt": "2026-09-25T06:59:41.905Z" }, { "source": "yahoo:chart:2097.HK", "observations": 5758, "firstAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:06.645Z", "lastAt": "2026-09-25T06:59:41.906Z" }, { "source": "yahoo:chart:BMNR", "observations": 5758, "firstAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:06.649Z", "lastAt": "2026-09-25T06:59:41.908Z" }, { "source": "yahoo:chart:BRK-B", "observations": 5757, "firstAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:06.639Z", "lastAt": "2026-09-25T06:59:41.903Z" }, { "source": "yahoo:chart:COIN", "observations": 5758, "firstAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:06.642Z", "lastAt": "2026-09-25T06:59:41.905Z" }, { "source": "yahoo:chart:HKD=X", "observations": 5758, "firstAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:06.652Z", "lastAt": "2026-09-25T06:59:41.909Z" }, { "source": "yahoo:chart:ICE", "observations": 5758, "firstAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:06.644Z", "lastAt": "2026-09-25T06:59:41.906Z" }, { "source": "yahoo:chart:KO", "observations": 5758, "firstAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:06.645Z", "lastAt": "2026-09-25T06:59:41.907Z" }, { "source": "yahoo:chart:SLV", "observations": 5759, "firstAt": "2026-09-23T07:00:06.651Z", "lastAt": "2026-09-25T06:59:41.909Z" } ], "campaign": { "before": { "capturedAt": "2026-09-24T06:55:01Z", "label": "campaign-pre" }, "after": { "capturedAt": "2026-09-24T07:05:02Z", "label": "campaign-post" }, "rows": [ { "symbol": "BRK.Bx", "regimeBefore": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "regimeAfter": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "regimeChanged": false, "c1Before": "16106.344726", "c1After": "16106.344726", "c1ChangePct": "0.00", "c3Before": "49314.480468", "c3After": "49314.480468", "c3ChangePct": "0.00", "markBefore": "500.335037736286821452", "markAfter": "500.145700236286821452", "markChangePct": "-0.03", "ceilingBefore": "12079.758544", "ceilingAfter": "12079.758544", "ceilingChangePct": "0.00", "verdict": "held", "laterAt": "2026-09-25T07:00:02Z", "c1Later": "21496.267578", "c1LaterChangePct": "33.46" }, { "symbol": "HKEXCx", "regimeBefore": "NORMAL", "regimeAfter": "NORMAL", "regimeChanged": false, "c1Before": "10791.721679", "c1After": "10791.721679", "c1ChangePct": "0.00", "c3Before": "32573.656249", "c3After": "32573.656249", "c3ChangePct": "0.00", "markBefore": "49.924604563824321639", "markAfter": "49.919174021063801005", "markChangePct": "-0.01", "ceilingBefore": "8093.791259", "ceilingAfter": "8093.791259", "ceilingChangePct": "0.00", "verdict": "held", "laterAt": "2026-09-25T07:00:02Z", "c1Later": "228.341738", "c1LaterChangePct": "-97.88" }, { "symbol": "COINx", "regimeBefore": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "regimeAfter": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "regimeChanged": false, "c1Before": "7063.641698", "c1After": "7053.340819", "c1ChangePct": "-0.14", "c3Before": "22987.899608", "c3After": "22941.548827", "c3ChangePct": "-0.20", "markBefore": "194.062604477765970886", "markAfter": "193.534938700582348761", "markChangePct": "-0.27", "ceilingBefore": "5297.731274", "ceilingAfter": "5290.005614", "ceilingChangePct": "-0.14", "verdict": "held", "laterAt": "2026-09-25T07:00:02Z", "c1Later": "6314.212304", "c1LaterChangePct": "-10.60" }, { "symbol": "KUAIx", "regimeBefore": "THIN", "regimeAfter": "THIN", "regimeChanged": false, "c1Before": "4031.062471", "c1After": "4031.062471", "c1ChangePct": "0.00", "c3Before": "7793.882324", "c3After": "7793.882324", "c3ChangePct": "0.00", "markBefore": "3.873466276848891507", "markAfter": "3.863734403704421896", "markChangePct": "-0.25", "ceilingBefore": "3023.296853", "ceilingAfter": "3023.296853", "ceilingChangePct": "0.00", "verdict": "held", "laterAt": "2026-09-25T07:00:02Z", "c1Later": "22.230107", "c1LaterChangePct": "-99.44" }, { "symbol": "ICEx", "regimeBefore": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "regimeAfter": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "regimeChanged": false, "c1Before": "6281.560058", "c1After": "6281.560058", "c1ChangePct": "0.00", "c3Before": "19587.443359", "c3After": "19587.443359", "c3ChangePct": "0.00", "markBefore": "153.242762834827330295", "markAfter": "153.049712834827330295", "markChangePct": "-0.12", "ceilingBefore": "4711.170044", "ceilingAfter": "4711.170044", "ceilingChangePct": "0.00", "verdict": "held", "laterAt": "2026-09-25T07:00:02Z", "c1Later": "14277.019531", "c1LaterChangePct": "127.28" }, { "symbol": "MIXUx", "regimeBefore": "THIN", "regimeAfter": "THIN", "regimeChanged": false, "c1Before": "1077.08374", "c1After": "1077.08374", "c1ChangePct": "0.00", "c3Before": "2510.999023", "c3After": "2510.999023", "c3ChangePct": "0.00", "markBefore": "23.408430107429746599", "markAfter": "23.429542168093412943", "markChangePct": "0.09", "ceilingBefore": "807.812805", "ceilingAfter": "807.812805", "ceilingChangePct": "0.00", "verdict": "held", "laterAt": "2026-09-25T07:00:02Z", "c1Later": "82.703717", "c1LaterChangePct": "-92.32" }, { "symbol": "KOx", "regimeBefore": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "regimeAfter": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "regimeChanged": false, "c1Before": "6274.144042", "c1After": "6274.144042", "c1ChangePct": "0.00", "c3Before": "18527.582031", "c3After": "18527.582031", "c3ChangePct": "0.00", "markBefore": "86.782266393697676216", "markAfter": "86.797499054181845142", "markChangePct": "0.01", "ceilingBefore": "4705.608032", "ceilingAfter": "4705.608032", "ceilingChangePct": "0.00", "verdict": "held", "laterAt": "2026-09-25T07:00:02Z", "c1Later": "18821.929687", "c1LaterChangePct": "199.99" }, { "symbol": "SHEINx", "regimeBefore": "NORMAL", "regimeAfter": "NORMAL", "regimeChanged": false, "c1Before": "5693.237304", "c1After": "5693.237304", "c1ChangePct": "0.00", "c3Before": "17687.173828", "c3After": "17687.173828", "c3ChangePct": "0.00", "markBefore": "4.762528176844789022", "markAfter": "4.761025720260141043", "markChangePct": "-0.03", "ceilingBefore": "4269.927978", "ceilingAfter": "4269.927978", "ceilingChangePct": "0.00", "verdict": "held", "laterAt": "2026-09-25T07:00:02Z", "c1Later": "1483.795532", "c1LaterChangePct": "-73.93" }, { "symbol": "BMNRx", "regimeBefore": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "regimeAfter": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "regimeChanged": false, "c1Before": "8676.49121", "c1After": "8662.760253", "c1ChangePct": "-0.15", "c3Before": "28446.593749", "c3After": "28367.263671", "c3ChangePct": "-0.27", "markBefore": "27.00405373536756665", "markAfter": "27.002959377026736278", "markChangePct": "0.00", "ceilingBefore": "6507.368408", "ceilingAfter": "6497.07019", "ceilingChangePct": "-0.15", "verdict": "held", "laterAt": "2026-09-25T07:00:02Z", "c1Later": "13603.02539", "c1LaterChangePct": "56.78" }, { "symbol": "SLVx", "regimeBefore": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "regimeAfter": "REFERENCE_CLOSED", "regimeChanged": false, "c1Before": "8008.507324", "c1After": "8008.58496", "c1ChangePct": "0.00", "c3Before": "18933.396484", "c3After": "18933.579101", "c3ChangePct": "0.00", "markBefore": "56.871802970378269339", "markAfter": "56.88257326472573948", "markChangePct": "0.01", "ceilingBefore": "6006.380493", "ceilingAfter": "6006.43872", "ceilingChangePct": "0.00", "verdict": "held", "laterAt": "2026-09-25T07:00:02Z", "c1Later": "2605.982666", "c1LaterChangePct": "-67.45" } ], "summary": { "assets": 10, "depthMovedAtLeastOnePercent": 0, "regimeChanges": 0, "verdicts": { "held": 10, "fell": 0, "rose": 0, "mixed": 0, "insufficient evidence": 0 }, "statement": "executable depth at 1% did not fall by one percent or more for any of the 10 assets; 0 rose by at least one percent and 0 changed regime." } }, "findings": [ { "claim": "6 of 10 asset pools had less in-range liquidity in the hour after the campaign ended at 07:00 UTC on 24 Sep than just before it.", "evidence": "Last reading at or before 07:00 against the last reading at or before 08:00, per pool; KOx 95.62%, HKEXCx -67.49%, BRK.Bx 2.83%, COINx -1.68%, ICEx 0.63%, MIXUx -0.73%, KUAIx -0.51%, SHEINx -16.39%, BMNRx 1.56%, SLVx -41.06%." }, { "claim": "Between the campaign-pre capture at 06:55 and the campaign-post capture at 07:05 UTC, executable depth at 1% did not fall by one percent or more for any of the 10 assets; 0 rose by at least one percent and 0 changed regime.", "evidence": "Full engine captures of every asset: executable depth at 1% and 3% by tick walk, the Credit Mark, the regime and the debt ceiling Kerb would publish." }, { "claim": "By the 07:00 UTC capture, executable depth at 1% had fallen by 10% or more for 6 of 10 assets, the largest KUAIx at -99.44%, and risen by 10% or more for 4.", "evidence": "C(1%) at the last capture before the cliff against the last capture of the morning, per asset: BRK.Bx 33.46%, HKEXCx -97.88%, COINx -10.60%, KUAIx -99.44%, ICEx 127.28%, MIXUx -92.32%, KOx 199.99%, SHEINx -73.93%, BMNRx 56.78%, SLVx -67.45%. The Hong Kong market closes at 08:00 UTC, inside this interval, so for its assets the incentive end and the close cannot be told apart from these readings alone." }, { "claim": "Now that the record holds sessions, it can compare them: for 8 of 10 assets, in-range liquidity moved more from minute to minute while the underlying market was in its regular session than while it was shut.", "evidence": "Mean absolute change between consecutive readings, never across a hole: BRK.Bx 210.78 bp open, 1.88 bp closed; HKEXCx 81.72 bp open, 368.68 bp closed; COINx 16.35 bp open, 1.36 bp closed; KUAIx 63.79 bp open, 1.70 bp closed; ICEx 16.78 bp open, 13.81 bp closed; MIXUx 24.46 bp open, 6.20 bp closed; KOx 44.71 bp open, 9.26 bp closed; SHEINx 40.61 bp open, 2.14 bp closed; BMNRx 23.35 bp open, 9.39 bp closed; SLVx 3.33 bp open, 7.49 bp closed." } ], "limitations": [ "Two days either side of one event is one observation of that event. It shows what happened here, not what always happens.", "The later comparison spans the Hong Kong close at 08:00 UTC; for HKEXCx, KUAIx, MIXUx and SHEINx the end of incentives and the market close overlap.", "In-range liquidity L is in protocol units, not dollars; executable depth C(1%) in the captures is the dollar measure.", "The session comparison measures how much L moved, not why. Liquidity providers act for reasons the record does not hold." ], "reproduce": "pnpm --filter @kerb/engine exec tsx scripts/market-time-report-2.ts regenerates this file from the observation store and the window captures in data/windows. Every row is a SELECT over append-only tables.", "status": "final" }